Minnesota held a special election today to replace vacating Republican Senator Tom Neuville.  Per The Star Tribune

Voters in a south-metro Senate district split by Interstate 35 will vote in a special election today to replace Sen. Tom Neuville, R-Northfield, who will be sworn in as a Rice County judge this month.

The result was a pick up that gave the Minnesota DFL (Democratic Farm-Labor Party) a veto proof majority in the Senate. With tonights results the DFL controls 67% of the Senate seats and 63% of the House seats.

One of the difficult things about the Democratic party is that we are such a big tent and such a diverse group of people.  That is why I enjoy reading about other parts of the country and other groups of people to learn more.

Well, today I received a lot of encouragement.  To take a step back, it has been a shitty week for me.  I've had pink eye (hopefully I didn't get too many infected before I realized this), and done my part time work/part time school in my last semester as a chemistry and economics double major.  I received a call from my father after his truck had problems with his headlight switch.  I came down, we bought a new part, installed it, and then he showed his thanks by taking me to the local VFW.  While my parents have always been Kennedy Democrats, that certainly isn't true in the county I grew up in as a child in MN.  I was rather cautious the last two cycles (sadly, the first two I was old enough to vote in) because the attidude was more of the same.  People in 2002 and 2004 were tired of the Republicans, but they weren't ready to vote them out, at least here.  

Repubican Micheal Steele scored a big endorsement in his campaign for Senate.  At his press conference Tyson,  posed for photos with fans, signed autographs and campaigned for Maryland U.S. Senate candidate Michael Steele.

It has been no secret that our Senate seat in Minnesota was endangered from the beginning.  Dayton beat a weak opponent in a self funded campaign by a margin of about 3 points, winning because of the gender gap.  Without much to his name, and with enough bad press he was probably right when he basically said he was not the strongest candidate to hold the seat.

The problem is that the deep bench of the DFL (the equivalent of the national Democratic party) is gone, and Republican opportunists have moved in (John Kline) or switched parties (Norm Coleman).

We do have one great candidate if he would be willing to run - Alan Page.

I've come to believe that the folks running the Democratic party are right; we should adopt Republican themes.  Our current strategy obviously isn't working.  None of us have to be reminded of the parties string of defeats in the past decade.  

Before you think I'm suggesting we run to the center check out this nice piece from David J. Sirota in this American Prospect piece titled The Democrats' Da Vinci Code.

Full article available through the link.  Highlights below.

After Ed in Montana and others did a fine job reporting the travesty going on there, I thought it was worth mentioning what is happening in another state that Democrats made big gains.

The Minnesota legislature opened today and fights over everything from organization, rules and even the vote over the house speaker were bitterly contested.  

It's natural to look for reasons to lose in such a stunning defeat.  I was caught off gaurd by it like many of you; personally I thought Kerry would win 311 EV's.  The polls all looked encouraging.  The momentum was ours.  I expected higher turnout.  Perhaps it's being from Minnesota, where we always have high turout.  We had 77% turnout this year, compared with 69% in 2000 (which was tops in 2000).  Turnout is one of the reasons that MN has the longest streak of voting Democrat for President in the country, and why we made massive gains in the state house.

The futures market investers were caught off gaurd as well.  The IEM had Kerry's probable victory at only 48% going into election day but by dinner time in the midwest it was over 70%.  People couldn't dump their Bush shares fast enough.  The percentage of people who thought that Bush would take 52% of the two party vote had dropped as low as 3%!  

It's no secret that the GOP in Illinois is going through some rough times.  They are trying to rebound after losing all but one statewide office during the 2002 election and a public corruption scandal involving former GOP Gov. George Ryan.  

Then their failure to find a Senate candidate only magnified the weakness, and desperation finally reared it's ugly head in the name of Alan Keyes.  Not only has Keyes been an embarassment to the state but several close house races are sweating the potential coattails from Obama's upcoming overwhelming victory.

Perhaps it has to do with the Keyes theme.  His central message has been how abortion and gay rights are eating away America's moral fiber.  He also favors replacing the income tax with a national sales tax (that's working about as well for him as it is for DeMint) and opposes the separation of church and state.

With so many polls flying left and right it's a good idea to step back and take a look at the bigger picture.  I think it's natural for many of us here (I'll confess to doing it) to getting excited every time we see a good poll and nervous every time we see a bad poll.  

The problem is that even when you get past the technical issues (margin of error, confident interval, good sampling, etc) and try to read through some of the general polling bias many polls use, we still have a lot of things working in our favor that polls can't show.

The pollsters aren't reflecting the massive GOTV effort we will put in place, the fact that undecideds break against the incumbent, and that overall our base is mobilized more than ever before (and that we actually really like Kerry and don't just hate Bush).

Mark Shields helps put things in perspective.  

I'm sure most of you have heard or seen this from the second debate.

We all know how fickle the media is and how important our efforts are.  

Anything that you can do to help, such as writing letters to the editor of your local newspaper, working on the talking points with your friends, and if your state hasn't closed registration try to get your dem friends out to vote (especially applies to young people who can be unfamiliar with the process).

That stuff being said, DCDemocrat has done a lot of good research and I believe that it's important to get this our there.  All of the polls with links are at his diary.  I'd also recommend supporting his mojo.  DCDemocrat's Diary

Kerry has a lot of ammunition going into Friday's debate.  He has proved in the past that he can go for the throat and I explained earlier why things are looking bleak for Bush.  

According to Zogby's new poll Bush was behind (in many cases far behind) in 13 of the 16 battleground states, with Kerry cutting into the lead in the other 3.  

Bush also had to contend with Republican Party scandals and as smart posters pointed out that the media finally realizes that they want to be "on the winning side".  

If you want to see more about the earlier press and diary, check out:
TimDauwalter's Diary

The current story can be found at the Washington Post

The media actually seems to be going out of it's way to drop the biggest bomb on Bush.

Talk about adding salt to the wounds with the new Zogby poll showing Kerry ahead big in Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan and New Mexico; ahead significantly in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Iowa; and leading within the MOE in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arkansas; as well as closing gaps in Missouri, Tennesee, Colorado and West Virginia. Check it out at the Wall Street Journals Web Site http://online.wsj.com/public/us

This is the time to attack.  Bush is on the defensive.  It's time for Kerry to go for the throat just like he did in his race against William Weld back in the close 1996 Senate Race. (Edited to add link and make minor revision)

A CBS News poll conducted after the presidential debate found that uncommitted voters who saw the encounter chose John Kerry as the winner over President Bush by a margin of 43-28 percent. Another 29 percent called it a draw.

An ABC News poll Kerry 45% Bush 36% Tie 17%

A CNN online poll: Kerry 71% Bush 22% Tie 7%
If there's one thing President Bush should know to avoid in debates, it's the audible sigh. And the eye-rolling. Yet there he was last night, doing his best Al Gore, as most TV networks ran those forbidden cutaway shots that hurt him as much as John Kerry did.

The New Mexico Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered Ralph Nader's name to be placed on New Mexico's Nov. 2 ballot as an independent presidential candidate, turning back a Democratic challenge to his candidacy.

The ruling overturns a decision last week by state District Judge Theresa Baca, who said that Nader didn't qualify as an independent candidate in New Mexico because he's running in other states as the nominee for minor parties, including the Reform Party in Florida and Colorado.

Bush lost the state in 2000 by 366 votes. Nader ran as the Green Party nominee four years ago and received about 4 percent of the vote in New Mexico.

For more info check out http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57193-2004Sep28.html

Crude oil passed the milestone fifty dollar per barrel mark in overnight trading.  This is largely a response to turmoil in oil-rich countries such as Nigeria and Iraq, as well as a decline in production in the Gulf of Mexico due to the hurricnes.  

Terrorists and insurgents have been stepping up their atttacks in an attempt to distrupt energy markets and destabilize governments.  The attacks have been most intense in Iraq, but also in Indonesia, Pakistan, India and Russia.

The news was anticipated but none the less devistated world wide markets expressed increasing concern.  The United States saw the Dow drop below 10,000 once again on Tuesday.  In other stock markets the indices in Asia and Europe took similar large hits.  

Before getting into how Kerry will win this it's important to look at the facts.

Bush won over Ann Richards in 1994 and Al Gore in 2000 by using unconventional tactics that played well with the public versus his opponents traditional and well versed debating skills.

Kerry, falls in line with the traditional and well versed Richards and Gore, but will be able to use those lessons to nullify most of Bush's strengths.

Finally, and very importantly, polling over the last several months has shown that voters are unhappy with the war in Iraq, the economy, and the direction of the country.

The latest tax cut (the 4th in 4 years) was overwhelmingly passed by both houses.

It passed the House 339 to 65, and the Senate 92 to 3.  The lone defectors in the Senate are the retiring Hollings (D-SC), Chafee (R-RI) and Snowe (R-Maine).  I'm sure Chafee and Snowe will take a lot of heat for this vote.  Both of them (along with Collins) are becoming marginalized in their party.  I would love to see them give up the R by their name, even if it means they're still moderates.